Low water, high stakes: when low water puts Europe under pressure

The (not so exceptional anymore) low water levels on the Rhine and Danube in recent weeks are a reminder that what happens on Europe’s rivers does not stay on the rivers.

Inland vessels are among the first to feel the effects, through reduced draught and cargo capacity. But the consequences quickly move ashore. Industrial production, energy supply, freight costs and tourism have all been affected during the current low-water period.

The Rhine and Danube are not only transport corridors. They connect ports with major industrial centres, carry raw materials and energy products, support passenger transport and tourism, and provide water for industrial and energy processes. Their reliability therefore matters well beyond the inland waterway transport sector.

Climate change is increasing the pressure

The low water followed an exceptionally hot and dry start to the European summer. According to the Copernicus Climate Change Service, western Europe experienced its warmest June on record in 2026, while river flows were below average across large parts of central and eastern Europe.

For inland waterways, climate resilience therefore depends both on preparing for changing hydrological conditions and on properly maintaining and managing Europe’s waterways.

The Rhine: when low water becomes an industrial cost

At Kaub, one of the main reference gauges for Rhine navigation, Germany’s official ELWIS service recorded 19 centimetres on 5 August, below the previous record of 25 centimetres registered in October 2018. Vessels can continue operating on many stretches, but with significantly reduced loads.

By the end of July, some vessels were reportedly carrying around 20% of their normal capacity. According to Reuters, tanker transport from Rotterdam to Karlsruhe reached around €150 to €155 per tonne, compared with €45 at the end of June.

The effects soon reached industry. Thyssenkrupp reduced hot-metal production in Duisburg following disruptions to raw-material deliveries. BASF warned of possible supply shortages at its Ludwigshafen complex, while Covestro increased stocks and used lower-draught vessels.

There is also a wider economic dimension. Research by the Kiel Institute for the World Economy has previously found a clear relationship between prolonged Rhine low water and German industrial production. For the current episode, Kiel economist Stefan Kooths estimated that low Rhine levels could reduce German GDP growth in the third quarter by between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points, as reported by Reuters.

The Danube: freight, tourism and energy

The Danube is facing similar pressure, but with an additional impact on energy production.

On 28 July, Romania’s National Administration “Apele Române” reported a Danube flow of 1,650 cubic metres per second, around one-third of the long-term July average. On parts of the lower Danube, barges and tankers were reported to be operating at only 30% to 40% of their normal cargo capacity.

Passenger activities have also been affected. Reuters reported cancellations and changes to river-cruise operations on the Danube and Rhine, with Hungarian sightseeing operator MAHART-PassNave reporting an 18% fall in July bookings at the time.

The most serious consequences, however, have been felt in the energy sector. Hungary’s Paks nuclear power plant, which relies on Danube water for cooling, saw output fall to just over 10% of capacity during the crisis. In Romania, Unit 1 of the Cernavodă nuclear power plant was shut down because of the low Danube flow, while extraordinary measures were taken to maintain sufficient cooling water for Unit 2.

The connection is clear: less water means less carrying capacity, higher transport costs and greater pressure on supply chains. When the same rivers are also supporting electricity generation and industrial activity, the economic effects multiply.

Sustainability also means preparing for low water

For the inland waterway transport sector, none of this is new. Operators across Europe have dealt with changing water levels for many years, adapting vessels, loading strategies, logistics planning and passenger operations where possible.

The sector has also been working on the issue at European and river-basin level for years. This work is reflected in the European IWT Platform’s latest Annual Report, published in 2026, and particularly in the activities of its Infrastructure Committee.

The Platform is involved in discussions on water scarcity, drought and climate adaptation through the Water Framework Directive Navigation Task Group and in cooperation with the relevant river commissions. A recent example came on 16 June, when the European IWT Platform participated in the Plenary Meeting of the International Commission for the Protection of the Rhine (ICPR). Climate adaptation, low-water management, water quality and the long-term resilience of the Rhine were among the topics discussed. The Platform continues to stress the importance of involving navigation in river-basin decisions, including as a non-consumptive water user.

The recently concluded EU-funded ReNEW project, coordinated by the Platform, also worked on a smarter, greener and more climate-resilient inland waterway system, including tools addressing infrastructure resilience and drought and flood conditions.

At the same time, the sector continues to work on reducing its own environmental footprint. In its contribution to the Sustainable Transport Investment Plan (STIP), the IWT and ports sector called for the investment and policy framework needed to accelerate the uptake of renewable and low-carbon fuels.

These two efforts belong together. Sustainability is about reducing emissions, but it is also about making sure that a sustainable transport mode can continue to operate in a changing climate.

The events on the Rhine and Danube show why that matters. Reliable and well-managed waterways support not only navigation, but also industrial supply chains, energy security, tourism and the wider European economy.